[anti-abuse-wg] Certainty vs. Severity as a deterrent (was Notice: Fradulent RIPE ASNs)
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Shane Kerr
shane at time-travellers.org
Tue Jan 22 10:28:02 CET 2013
Ronald, On Monday, 2013-01-21 03:44:57 -0800, "Ronald F. Guilmette" <rfg at tristatelogic.com> wrote: > I can't remember where anymore, but somewhere, a long time ago, I > read something about crime & punishment that basically said that > for crimes that are particularly easy to pull off, it can be easily > seen that those specific types of crimes will run rampant _unless_ > the punishment for those few who get caught is made extremely harsh... > you know, so that anyone in their right mind would really have to > think twice before trying it, even in the odds are only one in a > hundred of ever actually getting caught. Contemporary research tends to suggest that increasing harshness won't help: While the criminal justice system as a whole provides some deterrent effect, a key question for policy development regards whether enhanced sanctions or an enhanced possibility of being apprehended provide any additional deterrent benefits. Research to date generally indicates that increases in the *certainty* of punishment, as opposed to the *severity* of punishment, are more likely to produce deterrent benefits. http://www.sentencingproject.org/doc/deterrence%20briefing%20.pdf Cheers, -- Shane p.s. There is a _Star Trek_ episode which posits that we only need the death penalty to achieve utopia though: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_%28Star_Trek:_The_Next_Generation%29
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